Key demographic factors for recovery of the endangered Nightingale Reed-Warbler (Acrocephalus hiwae) via population viability analysis

The Nightingale Reed-Warbler (Acrocephalus hiwae), a critically endangered songbird, is the last remaining of four reed-warbler species that once inhabited the Mariana Islands. The most recent population estimate for the species is 2915-3742 individuals distributed over the islands of Saipan (n = 2742, 95% CI = 1686-3956) and Alamagan (n = 946, 95% CI = 173-1000), which represents a significant decline for the species on Saipan. Though data on life history parameters such as survival rates are not widely available, other parameters such as clutch size and nest success have been studied. Given the extirpation of three of the four reed-warbler species from the Mariana Islands, the recent significant decline of the larger Saipan population, and the increasing threats faced by the species, it is critical to determine what additional life history information is needed to aid management decisions. Using Vortex, we developed stochastic population models to represent current reed-warbler population dynamics and used sensitivity analysis to identify the life history parameters to which the model was most sensitive. Baseline models without inbreeding indicated declines of the Nightingale Reed-Warbler populations on Saipan and Alamagan, as well as of the overall population. The inclusion of inbreeding further increases the modeled rate of population decline. Parameters such as initial population size, carrying capacity, and male survival have relatively little influence on reed-warbler population models, while female and juvenile survival and, to a lesser degree, fecundity measures, exhibit strong influences on the species' population dynamics. We recommend effort be placed on collecting updated survival data for all life stages, but particularly for females and juveniles. Given model predictions of vulnerability to extinction, we recommend management actions that may increase survival rates of juveniles and females