Weaker connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Indian summer rainfall since the mid-1990s

Previous studies have shown that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can play an important role in modulating the variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over a 50–60-yr timescale. A significant positive correlation between the AMO and ISMR is found both in observations and models. However, instrumental records show that the relationship becomes non-significant or even of opposite sign after the mid-1990s, suggesting a weakening of the AMO–ISMR connection. The mechanism for the breakdown of the AMO–ISMR connection is investigated in the present work, and the results suggest that a substantial warming in the Indian–tropical western Pacific Ocean plays a role. The warming weakens the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature between Eurasia and the Indian Ocean, and reduces the meridional sea level pressure gradient between the Indian Subcontinent and Indian Ocean, weakening the Indian summer monsoon. Thus, warming in the Indian–tropical western Pacific Ocean seems responsible for the weakened connection between the AMO and ISM