Mud Flow Reconstruction by Means of Physical Erosion Modeling, High-Resolution Radar-Based Precipitation Data, and UAV Monitoring

Storm events and accompanying heavy rain endanger the silty soils of the fertile and intensively-used agricultural landscape of the Saxon loess province in the European loess belt. In late spring 2016, persistent weather conditions with repeated and numerous storm events triggered flash floods, landslides, and mud flows, and caused severe devastation to infrastructure and settlements throughout Germany. In Saxony, the rail service between Germany and the Czech Republic was disrupted twice because of two mud flows within eight days. This interdisciplinary study aims to reconstruct the two mud flows by means of high-resolution physical erosion modeling, high-resolution, radar-based precipitation data, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle monitoring. Therefore, high-resolution, radar-based precipitation data products are used to assess the two storm events which triggered the mud flows in this unmonitored area. Subsequently, these data are used as meteorological input for the soil erosion model EROSION 3D to reconstruct and predict mud flows in the form of erosion risk maps. Finally, the model results are qualitatively validated by orthophotos generated from images from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle monitoring and Structure from Motion Photogrammetry. High-resolution, radar-based precipitation data reveal heavy to extreme storm events for both days. Erosion risk maps show erosion und deposition patterns and source areas as in reality, depending on the radar-based precipitation product. Consequently, reconstruction of the mud flows by these interdisciplinary methods is possible. Therefore, the development of an early warning system for soil erosion in agricultural landscapes by means of E 3D and high-resolution, radar-based precipitation forecasting data is certainly conceivable