Predictors of the effectiveness of an early medication change strategy in patients with major depressive disorder

Abstract Background Patients with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) who are non-improvers after two weeks of antidepressant treatment have a high risk of treatment failure. Recently, we did not find differences in outcomes in non-improvers randomized to an early medication change (EMC) strategy compared to treatment as usual (TAU). This secondary analysis investigated possible predictors of higher remission rates in the EMC strategy. Methods Of 192 non-improvers (i.e. decrease of ≤20% on the HAMD-17 depression scale) after a two-week treatment with escitalopram, n = 97 were randomized to EMC (immediate switch to high doses of venlafaxine XR) and n = 95 to TAU (continued escitalopram until day 28 with non-responders switched to venlafaxine XR). We first analyzed patient characteristics, psychopathological features and subtypes of MDD by logistic regression analyses as possible predictors of remission rates. In a second investigation, we analyzed the predictors, which showed a significant association in the first analysis before Bonferroni-Holm correction by chi-squared tests separated for treatment groups. All analyses were corrected by Bonferroni-Holm method. Results The first analyses yielded no statistically significant results after correction for multiple testing. In the second analyses, however, patients with prior medication at study entry showed higher remission rates in EMC than in TAU (24.2% versus 8.6%, p = 0.017; Bonferroni-Holm corrected significance level: p = 0.025.). Furthermore, patients with a recurrent course of MDD benefited less from treatment as usual (p = 0.009; Bonferroni-Holm corrected significance level: p = 0.025). Age, sex, age of onset, psychiatric or somatic comorbidities, and other subtypes of MDD did not predict remission rates. Conclusions Although in our first analysis we found statistically non-significant results, the second analysis showed significant differences in remission rates between patients with or without previous medication and in patients with recurrent MDD or the first depressive episode. It would therefore be valuable to examine in larger and prospective studies whether remission rates can be increased by quick escalation of treatment in certain subgroups of patients. Promising subgroups to be tested are patients who were previously medicated, and who show a recurrent course of MDD. Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00974155. Registered at the 10th of September 2009. Retrospectively registered