Study of guangzhou house price bubble based on state‐space model

Previous literature has explored Guangzhou's real estate market bubble problem, by using the perspective of rent receipts to measure the fundamental housing value. Since there is high proportion of owner‐occupied property in Guangzhou; and that the household income is considered a key factor affecting housing price level, this article is from the perspective of household income, by the present asset market model, it sets up housing price model that analysis of the bubble phenomenon, and uses the state‐space model that can be estimated characteristics by unobservable variables. The article estimates the price bubble and analyzes the size of the bubble at different times. The housing price in Guangzhou from January 2004 to December 2008 is studied. The results concluded that the housing market bubble peaked in October 2007 at around 43% of the market housing price. Santruka Jau skelbtuose darbuose Guangžu nekilnojamojo turto rinkos burbulo problema nagrineta pasitelkus gaunamos nuomos perspektyva, siekiant nustatyti fundamentaliaja būsto verte. Kadangi nemaža dalis nuosavybes Guangžu mieste užimta savininku, o namu ūkiu pajamos laikomos esminiu būsto kainu lygi lemiančiu veiksniu, šiame straipsnyje pasirinkta namu ūkio pajamu perspektyva pagal esama turto rinkos modeli; sudarytas būsto kainu modelis, kuriuo remiantis nagrinejamas burbulo reiškinys, ir pasitelktas būsenu ir erdves modelis, kuris charakteristikas leidžia ivertinti pagal netiesioginius kintamuosius veiksnius. Straipsnyje vertinamas kainu burbulas ir analizuojamas burbulo dydis ivairiu metu. Nagrinejamos Guangžu būsto kainos nuo 2004 m. sausio iki 2008 m. gruodžio. Rezultatai rodo, kad būsto rinkos burbulas pika pasieke 2007 m. spali, apytikriai prie 43 % būstu rinkos kainos. First Publish Online: 18 Oct 201