The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: Forecasting of risks

The development of the Arctic region is now especially relevant. The Arctic shelf is attractive due to hydrocarbon fields, and the Northern Sea Route remains the most important transport route linking Asia and Europe. However, the severe arctic climate does not contribute to the intensive development of the territory, and even carries a certain danger. This problem is especially acute in the eastern sector of the Arctic and even in the Far East as regions with underdeveloped infrastructure. Accidents associated with ice conditions are typical for the northern latitudes, the most dangerous ones are icing of ships. Owing to the strong remoteness of the ports from each other, the response time in an emergency situation is difficult to bring to the normative index. Creating a dense network of rescue teams will require unjustifiably large financial investments. Therefore, a risk assessment is proposed as a basic measure to improve the existing emergency response system. The necessity of improving methods for risk assessment taking into account spatial and temporal changes has been substantiated. An analysis of factors that largely determine the level of risk has been carried out. Some examples of risk-generating factors have been given. The synergistic and neutralizing effects of risk-forming factors have been considered. The linking of risks to a certain locality has been justified. According to media reports the accident of the Vostok trawler occurred in January 2018 in the Japan Sea has been analyzed. Criteria and boundary conditions of modeling have been singled out. Maps of the probability of icing have been constructed for the accident time. The risk assessment for the accident has been carried out using computer weather models. The risk distribution maps have been constructed. Conclusions have been drawn about the applicability of the approach and the need for its further improvement