Using classification assignment rules to assess land-use change impacts on forest biodiversity at local-to-national scales

Abstract Background Ecosystem representation is one key component in assessing the biodiversity impacts of land-use changes that will irrevocably alter natural ecosystems. We show how detailed vegetation plot data can be used to assess the potential impact of inundation by a proposed hydroelectricity dam in the Mokihinui gorge, New Zealand, on representation of natural forests. Specifically we ask: 1) How well are the types of forest represented locally, regionally, and nationally; and 2) How does the number of distinct communities (i.e. beta diversity) in the target catchment compare with other catchments nationally? Methods For local and regional comparisons plant species composition was recorded on 45 objectively located 400 m2 vegetation plots established in each of three gorges, with one being the proposed inundation area of the Mokihinui lower gorge. The fuzzy classification framework of noise clustering was used to assign these plots to a specific alliance and association of a pre-existing national-scale classification. Nationally, we examined the relationship between the number of alliances and associations in a catchment and either catchment size or the number of plots per catchment by fitting Generalised Additive Models. Results The four alliances and five associations that were observed in the Mokihinui lower gorge arepresent in the region but limited locally. One association was narrowly distributed nationally, but is the mostfrequent association in the Mokihinui lower gorge; inundation may have consequences of national importance to its long-term persistence. That the Mokihinui lower gorge area had nearly twice as many plots that could not be assigned to pre-existing alliances and associations than either the Mokihinui upper or the Karamea lower gorges and proportionally more than the national dataset emphasises the compositional distinctiveness of this gorge. These outlier plots in the Mokihinui lower gorge may be unsorted assemblages of species or reflect sampling bias or that native-dominated woody riparian vegetation is rare on the landscape. At a national scale, the Mokihinui catchment has a higher diversity of forest alliances and associations (i.e. beta-diversity) than predicted based on catchment size and sampling intensity. Conclusions Our analytical approach demonstrates one transparent solution to a common conservation planning problem: assessing how well ecosystems that will be destroyed by a proposed land-use change are represented using a multi-scale spatial and compositional framework. We provide a useful tool for assessing potential consequences of land-use change that can help guide decision making