Vulnerability to climate change of smallholder cocoa producers in the province of Manabí, Ecuador

The consequences of climate change in the agricultural sector worldwide expose the need to understand the scope of their impact in order to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies for them. Therefore, this research evaluated the alterations in the environmental conditions and their relation with the vulnerability of smallholder cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) producers to climate change in the province of Manabí. A non-probabilistic sampling of 1,060 small farmers was made in five cantons of Manabí. The vulnerability was determined through indicators such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), deforestation data from 1990 to 2016, models of the changes in climate and extreme weather events, satellite images, records from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI by its initials in Spanish), and numerical outputs of mathematical models calibrated for Ecuador climatic and environmental data. Each indicator was calculated in conventional units and then categorized into vulnerability levels: low, medium, high and very high. For the indicators’ superposition, algebraic tools of the Geographic Information Systems’ (GIS) maps were used. The results showed a very high incidence of extreme events, deforestation higher than 6,000 ha year-1, an increase of 0.8 °C in temperature between 1960 and 2006, an increase in rainfall on the coastal zone close to 90% and a decrease of it of more than 20% on the agricultural area. Furthermore, coverage showed the following distribution of the determined vulnerability levels: low (13.30%), medium (34.74%), high (45.53%), and very high (6.43%)