QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF KYRGYZ REPUBLIC ENTRY TO THE CUSTOM UNION(the case of textile industry)

The article gives a quantitative assessment of losses of Kyrgyzstan and its key trading partner China as a result of increasing of import duties on textiles and clothing because of joining of Kyrgyzstan to the Customs union of Eurasian Economic Union, as well as evaluation and justification of the amounts of possible compensations to Kyrgyzstan and China from the Russian Federation. The following methodology is used: the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS6) of 2007 and the least squares method. The Author›s model combines the parameters of the domestic production, domestic consumption, import and export of textile raw materials, semi-finished and finished products of Kyrgyzstan, and also it involves the calculation of the weighted average customs tariff and a corresponding change in import duties. The possible losses of Kyrgyzstan and China are estimated at 560 million USD annually. The arguments in favor of reducing the compensation from the Russian Federation are offered. The article consists of two related part