Russians in the republics of the North Caucasus: frontiers of geo-demographic retreat (the first half of the 21st century)

The article analyzes the geo-demographic dynamics of the Russian population of the republics of the North Caucasus in the post-Soviet period, registering the pace of reduction for each republic and studying the central role of migration in this depopulation process. Currently, the Russian population of the North Caucasus has returned to the level of the mid-1930s. The Republics of Chechnya and Ingushetia have lost almost all of their Russian population, while Dagestan has lost a significant part of its, too. Although demographic losses in other republics of the region have not been so great, a rapid reduction in the number of Russians has become a steady trend of the entire North Caucasus. In order to determine the corridor of the most likely demographic dynamics of Russians in the region up until 2050, a series of calculations was carried out, establishing that by 2030 the number of Russians in the North Caucasus will be reduced to 690-780 thousand people, and by mid-century – to 490-700 thousand. No less a threat will come from the deterioration of the age distribution of the local Russian population, which could lead to its demographic "collapse" in the period 2060-2070