Comparative Analysis of the Energy Sector Development Trends and Forecast of Final Energy Demand in the Baltic States

The paper provides a comparative analysis of economic growth in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and discusses differences in development of the main sectors during the period 2000–2016. Based on detailed analysis of energy sector development, the driving factors influencing changes in primary energy consumption in each country and in the Baltic region are discovered. Increase of renewable energy sources (RES) consumption in the Baltic region over this period by 73.6% is emphasized. The paper presents valuable insights from analysis of trends in final energy consumption by sectors of the national economies, branches of the manufacturing sector, and by energy carriers. Long-term relationships between economic growth and final energy consumption are established. An econometric model was applied to predict final energy demand in the Baltic States for the 2020 horizon. It is emphasized that growing activities in the manufacturing and transport sectors will cause increase of final energy demand in all three countries. Based on detailed analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends some positive shifts are shown and the necessity of new policies in the transport sector and agriculture is identified. Changes of emission intensity indicators are examined and a potential for decoupling of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from economic growth in Estonia is indicated