Formal approach on modeling and predicting of software system security: Stochastic petri net

To evaluate and predict component-based software security, a two-dimensional model of software security is proposed by Stochastic Petri Net in this paper. In this approach, the software security is modeled by graphical presentation ability of Petri nets, and the quantitative prediction is provided by the evaluation capability of Stochastic Petri Net and the computing power of Markov chain. Each vulnerable component is modeled by Stochastic Petri net and two parameters, Successfully Attack Probability (SAP) and Vulnerability Volume of each component to another component. The second parameter, as a second dimension of security evaluation, is a metric that is added to modeling to improve the accuracy of the result of system security prediction. An isomorphic Markov chain is obtained from a corresponding SPN model. The security prediction is calculated based on the probability distribution of the MC in the steady state. To identify and trace back to the critical points of system security, a sensitive analysis method is applied by derivation of the security prediction equation. It provides the possibility to investigate and compare different solutions with the target system in the designing phase