Accessibilité territoriale et gestion de crise volcanique aux Antilles françaises (Guadeloupe & Martinique) : contribution à la planification des évacuations

This paper develops a spatial and comparative approach focused on the accessibility during a volcanic crisis. After an assessment of the resources and populations exposed, it leads to a cartography of the territorial isolation risk in case of lahars. This indirect risk is modeled using road accessibility graph-based calculations and indicators taking into account the specific vulnerability of river crossings and historical lahars knowledge. Another application of these calculations concerns the evacuation of populations by providing an optimized zonation of evacuation while showing its potential gain on the road network load. These results are integrated in two prototypes of evacuation maps intended for the authorities. The situation of Guadeloupe is more worrying than Martinique’s one due to the quantity of exposed stakes, the potential losses of accessibility, and the increased activity of its volcano, La Soufrière