Impacts of future climate variability on hydrological processes in the upstream catchment of Kase River basin, Japan

Abstract The purpose of this study is to predict the hydrological responses to climate change in the upstream catchment of Kase River basin having an area of 225 km2 by using MIKE SHE model and GIS. Meteorological and hydrological data for the period of 5 years were available in Kase River basin. Average daily discharge data from 5-year period (1991–1995) were used for the calibration effort, and average daily discharge was measured at Kawakami station. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE = 0.588, suggests that the model can predict the runoff mechanism for different periods satisfactorily. To assess the climate change impacts, two scenarios were taken under consideration. The data generated from RCM 20 (Regional Climate Model) were utilized under scenario 1 to predict future period 2081–2100 in the river basin. On the other hand, CC-scenario 2 assumes an increase in average monthly air temperature about 3 °C and no change in precipitation in future at the end of twenty-first century. The results revealed that future climate variability under scenario 1 caused an increase of 408.16 mm in surface flow; 46.77 mm in terms of base flow and interflow; and an increase of 41.74 mm actual ET (evapotranspiration). The increase in surface runoff may be mostly due to increase in precipitation. Future climate variability under scenario 2 caused a decrease of 38.43 mm in surface flow; 2.25 mm in terms of base flow and interflow; and an increase of 46.62 mm actual ET. The decrease in surface runoff may be due to unchanged precipitation and increase in temperature