Demand Simulation for Water, Food Irrigation, and Energy from Micro Hydro Power Plant in Sungai Bayang, Bayang Utara, Pesisir Selatan West Sumatra

Clean water or fresh water, food and energy are basic human needs. The three basic needs are dependent to one another. The relationship between the three is called the "The nexus of Water, Energy, and Food". It requires good governance on watershed which will be implemented for example to manage water resources to fulfil demand of clean or drinking water, irrigation in food area and energy sources in hydro power plant. This study conducted analysis and simulation to prepare projection of electricity produced by Micro hydro Power Plant (MHP) It integrates a climate change scenarios to forecast its influence on electricity demand and response of river. In addition, the study also presented projections of influence on irrigated food production scenario in irrigation for rice paddy fields. Projection of The MHP electricity and the water demand including for the food sector is conducted by using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) software, while electricity demand forecast is conducted by applying the LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning) software. The case studies in this study conducted in river flows Bayang’s River. On the river there are three operating MHPs: The Muaro Aie MHP (ity30 kW of installed capac), The Koto Ranah MHP (30 kW) and The Pancuang Taba MHP (40 kW). The LEAP simulation projected electricity demand for Pesisir Selatan until 2025. Demand for South Pesisir Regency up to 2025 is predicted to reach 226.4 GWh with growth of 11.2% per year in BAU scenario, while reach 113.7 GWh with a 5% annual growth in efficiency scenario. The WEAP provided projected electricity production of MHP, basic water needs and irrigation needs for paddy fields in District IV Nagari Bayang Utara until 2025. The MHP electricity production in final year of projection with BAU scenario reaches 0.88 GWh, while with a climate change scenario of 0.63 GWh. The electricity demand fulfilled by MHP is predicted to be 0.39% in the BAU scenario, 0.28% in climate change scenarios, and 0.55% in the electricity savings scenario. Of the three MHP, the MHP Pancuang Taba is the most vulnerable to climate change, while MHP Koto Ranah shows relatively lower fluctuation. The highest staple water requirement is for Pancuang Taba which is 3643.4 thousand m3. The growth of staple water needs until 2025 tends to be constant. and most rice irrigation needs are in agriculture 2 of 976 thousand m3. The growth of irrigation needs of Bayang watershed until 2025 tends to be constant. Most irrigation needs for paddy fields are in irrigation area of “Agriculture 2” reaching 976,000 m3. The growth of irrigation needs in Bayang watershed tends to be constant