Model of adequacy optimization of electric power systems under market conditions

We present a new model of adequacy optimization of electric power systems under market conditions in the article. Optimization is realized by a criteria of maximum of social welfare. Social welfare includes profits of generating companies according penalties of unreliable electricity supply, consumer surplus, costs for development and servicing of electricity grids. Adequacy analysis of variants of development of electric power system is based on multiple estimation of electricity shortage in a random hour of system work. We analyze system work in each of a random hour in two stages. For the first stage we define equilibrium electricity demand in each system node and equilibrium price of electricity according to Cournot model. For the next stage failures of power generating equipment and transmission lines are simulated. We also estimate of electricity shortage in a current hour on the second stage. Reliability indexes and profits of generating companies are formed after a whole cycle of computations. Values of a profit are depended on reliability of electricity supply. Simulation of random values is carried out by the Monte Carlo method