Motorcycle accident modelling for the formulation of motorist safety action programs in Kupang City

Kupang city had to deal with transport safety issues where the total number of traffic accidents in 2017 increased by 51.05% compared to 2011. This study aims to describe and analyze the factors that affect motorcycle accidents through modelling by the method of Generalized Linear Models with Genstat and SPSS programm. Based on the results of the police report data summary, accidents most often occur on Sunday (15.95%); the time span at 18:00 to 23:59 pm (45.94%); type of hit the front (35.68%); victims died (12.19%), male sex (80.71%); age range 18-25 years (37.20%); with the level of education at the level of Higher Education (42.38%); worked in the private sector (37.75%); do not have a driver's license (75.43%). The results of the analysis of survey data obtained equation modelling accident MCA = 0,0006713* Flow 0.000275*exp [0.2144 LaneWidth - ShoulderWidth_Sidewalk 1.952 - 2.026 MedianRoad + 0.2139 Speed + 0.0513 Access]. Modelling results showed that the addition of total lane width decrease the number of motorcycle accidents by 10% per year, pavement by 6% per year, median by 13% per year, traffic flow by 3% per year, speed by 14% per year, access road by 2% per year. It is therefore recommended a program of action in the form of additional elements of the road medians and pavement on a road segment that the accident rate can be reduced