Regulatory T-cell Number in Peripheral Blood at 1 Year Posttransplant as Predictor of Long-term Kidney Graft Survival

Background. Regulatory T (Treg) cells play a role in limiting kidney transplant rejection and can potentially promote long-term transplant tolerance. There are no large prospective studies demonstrating the utility of peripheral blood Treg cells as biomarkers for long-term graft outcome in kidney transplantation. The aim of our study was to analyze the influence of the absolute number of peripheral blood Treg cells after transplantation on long-term death-censored graft survival. Methods. We monitored the absolute numbers of Treg cells by flow cytometry in nonfrozen samples of peripheral blood in 133 kidney transplant recipients, who were prospectively followed up to 2 years after transplantation. Death-censored graft survival was determined retrospectively in January 2017. Results. The mean time of clinical follow-up was 7.4 ± 2.9 years and 24.1% patients suffered death-censored graft loss (DCGL). Patients with high Treg cells 1 year after transplantation and above the median value (14.57 cells/mm3), showed better death-censored graft survival (5-year survival, 92.5% vs 81.4%, Log-rank P = .030). One-year Treg cells showed a receiver operating characteristic - area under curve of 63.1% (95% confidence interval, 52.9–73.2%, P = 0.026) for predicting DCGL. After multivariate Cox regression analysis, an increased number of peripheral blood Treg cells was a protective factor for DCGL (hazard ratio, 0.961, 95% confidence interval, 0.924–0.998, P = 0.041), irrespectively of 1-year proteinuria and renal function. Conclusions. Peripheral blood absolute numbers of Treg cells 1 year after kidney transplantation predict a better long-term graft outcome and may be used as prognostic biomarkers