A model for canning peach crop value using a software for dynamic modeling

In order to optimize fruit thinning of canning peaches, considering yield and pulp fraction or canned fruit as a function of crop load, a model to estimate crop value was built using the software Stella®. Since crop value depends on fruit weight, size distribution and total yield, the relationships were estimated from experimental data collected over 10 years with different cultivars and orchards. The model estimates average fruit weight as a function of crop load, fruit set, thinning date, harvest date (cultivar) and maturity. The degree of maturity at harvest is defined as pulp firmness. Size distribution is estimated from the average fruit weight, considering three commercial categories: “for pulping”, “for canning” and “oversized fruit”. Total yield is based on fruits tree-1, trees ha-1 and fraction of intercepted radiation. The intercepted radiation of each situation is estimated from the coverage of the largest and the smallest tree, assuming a normally distributed population. Prices can be modified to generate different scenarios based on the requirements and allowances set by the industry. Although the validation of the model has not yet been done, the model can be a promising tool for determining the thinning strategy for canning peach by understanding and quantifying the yield response to crop load