Accounting for peoples' preferences in establishing new cities: A spatial model of population migration in Kuwait.

Modelling of internal migration to new cities is challenging, yet necessary to ensure that these newly established urban areas will be populated and function as intended. In the State of Kuwait, there is a unique set of push and pull factors: government subsidised housing for citizens, the existence of a single urban area, and the initiation of a new and ambitious master plan for the construction of 12 new cities, which are expected to attract not only locals, but also international residents and businesses. On top of these factors, there is an unusual demographic situation, as non-citizens outnumber Kuwaiti citizens by a factor of 2.3, with these groups having widely different preferences in terms of housing. Currently, there is no plan to take these resident groups' opinions into consideration for the new cities project. Besides, the current study simulates the impacts of the involvement of residents in urban planning. Samples from resident groups (citizens and non-citizens) participated in targeted surveys and useful answers were extracted in relation to the migration likelihood, push and pull factors that may affect their decisions, spatial preferences for new cities and their opinions on segregation by nationality. Specifically, the survey results showed significant interest of residents in moving to the new cities. For citizens, the most important factors in deciding whether to move or not were proximity to their close family and housing availability, while for non-citizens the most important factor was the creation of new employment opportunities. Both survey groups agreed that existing city property prices are too high and make the prospect of moving to a new city more attractive. The responses were transferred in an Agent Based Model, and the simulations showed certain differences to the official projections for 2050 without the public responses, in regards to the geographical distribution of the most desirable suburbs. Furthermore, the simulations showed that in the new cities, nationality segregation levels are expected to drop by at least 15% compared to the 2015 levels. The findings may be utilised by the authorities to modify the master plan accordingly