Foreign Tourists Arrival in India: An Analytical Study on Seasonal Variations of Tourist Arrival and its Impact on the Growth of Foreign Exchange Earnings.

The tourism industry is contributing to the development of the Indian economy. The role of the industry has improved and contributed in generating the needed foreign reserves. Hence, it is vital to study the rate of the growth of tourist arrivals in India. Further seasonal variation, which is a significant factor in terms of tourism, has to be studied. The seasonal analysis may help in proposing an apt policy framework, which may further enhance the scope of tourism in India. The objectives of the study were to assess the rate of growth of tourist arrival in India, and measure the seasonal variation in the tourist arrivals in India and also assess the change in foreign exchange earnings driven by the burgeoning tourism industry. Using valuable secondary sources of data over the period of 1999 to 2015, this paper seeks to capture the extent of the tourism industry’s growth. Moreover, in order to assess the determinants of tourism in India, the role of seasonal fluctuations has also been considered. The results show that over the period of 1999-2015, the Indian tourist arrivals had increased at a rate of 8.23 percent per year. Apparently, the tourist arrivals are season sensitive. Therefore, seasonal adjusted values have also been calculated. The seasonal adjusted graph shows that tourist arrivals in India are indeed less season sensitive in the long term. From a government point of view, information pertaining to these factors is important as it enables government to plan required infrastructural development. Government must as a matter of urgency craft strategy according to the expected arrival of tourists or this important industry and its range of sectors will not be sustainable