Predicting peripartum blood transfusion in women undergoing cesarean delivery: A risk prediction model.

OBJECTIVE:There has been an appreciable rise in postpartum hemorrhage requiring blood transfusions in the United States. Our objective is to better define patients at greatest risk for peripartum transfusion at the time of cesarean in order to identify cases for early intervention and monitoring. METHODS:Our study is a secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort study. Cases of intraoperative and immediate postpartum blood transfusion among women undergoing cesarean delivery were identified. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify antepartum and intrapartum risk factors that were independently associated with blood transfusion. A risk calculator was then developed to predict the need for transfusion. RESULTS:Of 56,967 women, 1488 (2.6%) required any blood transfusion. The strongest risk factors for peripartum blood transfusion included anemia (odds ratio [OR] 3.7, 95% CI 3.3-4.3), abruption on presentation (OR 3.3, CI 2.6-4.1), general anesthesia (OR 5.2, CI 4.4-6.1) and abnormal placentation (OR 92.0, CI 57.4-147.6). An antepartum (model 1) and combined antepartum plus intrapartum risk model (model 2) were developed (model 1 AUC = 0.77, model 2 AUC = 0.83) and internally validated. CONCLUSIONS:Among women who required cesarean delivery, we were able to identify risk factors which predispose women to peripartum blood transfusion and developed a prediction model with good discrimination