Assessment of long low-wind periods in a large CMIP5 ensemble.

a, Days with below average wind power generation in Central Europe are identified by a low value of the f-parameter (f(t) ≤ fth) in the GCM output. To determine the optimal value of the threshold fth, for each circulation weather type (CWT, here, the western type is shown) we compare the f-parameter to the German wind power output R(t), calculated from the dynamically downscaled ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset [48]. b, Absolute change of the duration of periods with f(t) ≤ fth by the end of the century (eoc, 2070-2100) compared to the historical time frame (h, 1970-2000) for a strong climate change scenario (RCP8.5) for 22 GCMs in the CMIP5 ensemble. The change of the mean duration, the 90% quantile and the 95% quantile of the duration distribution are shown. Filled circles represent the five GCMs which are also downscaled by the EURO-CORDEX initiative.