Example calibration curves for mortality at five years.

Curves show calibration of (A) model 5 (poorly-calibrated) and (B) model 9 (well-calibrated) from Fig 1. Each semi-transparent dot represents a patient in a random sample of 2000 from the test set, the x-axis shows their risk of death at five years as predicted by the relevant model, and the y-axis shows whether each patient was in fact dead or alive at that time. The curves are smoothed calibration curves derived from these points, and the area between the calibration curve and the black line of perfect calibration is a in the calibration score, 1 − a.