Spatial patterns of uncertainty in climate exposure metrics for North America at 1km resolution

The data provided below represents the degree of uncertainty or variation between 8 individual general circulation models (GCM) for three metrics commonly used to assess the intensity of exposure to climate change. The three exposure metrics (forward and backward climatic velocity and local climatic dissimilarity) were calculated based on the first two principal components (PC) scores derived from 11 different climate variables. Frameworks and heuristics supporting climate adaptation for conservation often rely on projections of climate change or climate exposure. However, projections of climate change vary among alternative GCM outputs, different emissions scenarios, and different future time periods. The potential for these model predictions to vary geographically presents a source of uncertainty in assigning climate-informed conservation strategies to landscapes. Regions with high agreement among predictions could be more confidently assigned a climate-informed strategy, whereas regions with less agreement among predictions may require a more cautious approach. More information on the data can be found at https://adaptwest.databasin.org/pages/uncertainty-climate-metrics.