A General Method for Quantifying Risks Using Probabilistic Graph Models

This mehod represents a novel modeling approach where the graph-theoretic models used in an analysis rest on a hierarchical network of Modules, each module a model of some subsystem. It provides a complete framework for resolving all relevant statistical dependencies and probabilistic uncertainties.In a short series of steps, the method measures the costs, elapsed times, vulnerability scores and the overall risk, or reliability and safety, as a threat - or multiple simultaneous threats - progress through the hierarchy.Economical and efficient, its simple and intuitive graph model contains at most 100 network vertices and requires an insignificant amount of computation time.Four support files needed to collect all the data and to execute the method have been included with the paper, together with the DOI address of each file.