The CVD-PREDICT microsimulation model.

Transitions were based on a calibrated risk score including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes status. Baseline risk factors were derived from NHANES 2009–2014, with further annual changes in all risk factors incorporating both age and secular trends. Increased intake of healthful foods could decrease the probability of transitioning of no CVD to acute CVD and chronic CVD to recurring CVD or CVD death. Adapted from Mozaffarian D, et al (2018) Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives and disincentives for improving food purchases and health through the US Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP): A microsimulation study. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002661. CHD, coronary heart disease; CVA, cerebrovascular accident; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; MI, myocardial infarction; NHANES, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; RCA, resuscitated cardiac arrest.