Proposed conceptual model.

(A) Landscape at time of forest establishment. The distribution on the left is a schematic illustration of a water level exceedance probability function. Mean sea level (MSL) is labeled (solid blue line). A threshold exceedance probability for regeneration is mapped onto a threshold elevation and horizontal position (solid green lines). Below this elevation, young trees cannot grow. (B) Landscape after sea level rise. The threshold probability remains constant, but the distribution of water levels changes with sea level (SLR; initial MSL labeled with dashed blue line). so that the regeneration boundary must move upslope (from the dashed green line to the solid green line). Figure reproduced from [34].