Influence of temperature on flowering and rippening dynamic of olive in olive orchards of croatian mediterannean area.

Maslinarstvo je vrlo važan gospodarski potencijal u poljoprivrednoj proizvodnji mnogih zemalja mediteranskog bazena pa tako i Hrvatske. Budući da je Sredozemlje najugroženije područje u Europi s obzirom na klimatske promjene, pomoću izračuna aktivnih temperaturnih suma za pet fenoloških faza masline (početak, puno i završetak cvjetanja te početak zrenja i berba) praćene su njihove promjene u Dalmaciji u razdobljima 1981. – 2010. i 1986. – 2015. u odnosu na referentno razdoblje 1961. – 1990. Porast temperaturnih suma je izraženiji kod jesenskih fenofaza. U Dalmaciji srednja količina oborine i trajanje sijanja Sunca od jedne do druge fenofaze masline pokazuje smanjivanje količine oborine (za 40 – 160 mm za berbu) i povećanja broja Sunčanih sati (za 50 – 200 sati za berbu) novijeg razdoblja od referentnog. Rezultati ovih istraživanja aktivnih temperaturnih suma su primijenjeni u rekonstrukciji fenoloških faza masline u prošlost. Niz fenoloških podataka je produljen za postaju Hvar u razdoblju 1877. – 2015. uz pomoć i fenoloških podaka iz razdoblja 1961. – 2015. Analiza linearnog trenda sekularnog niza proračunatih fenofaza masline je pokazala statistički signifikantno raniji nastup svih faza cvjetanja za -5 do -6 dana/100 god te raniju pojavu prvih zrelih plodova i berbe za -21 dan odnosno -27 dana u 100 godina. Takav veliki pomak ranijeg početka jesenskih fenofaza pokazuje da su klimatske promjene prisutne i utjecat će na daljni uzgoj maslina. Maslina tijekom zimskog mirovanja treba isto tako skupiti dovoljno inaktivnih temperaturnih suma s temperaturnim pragom ispod 7 °C kako bi došlo do razvrstavanja cvatnih pupova. Međutim, sve toplije zime donose mnoge nepoznanice koje mogu prouzročiti nesagledive negativne posljedice na maslinarstvo ako se agrotehničke mjere ne budu prilagodile novim vremenskim prilikama.Olive growing is very important economic potential in agricultural production of many countries in Mediterannean basin, including Croatia as well. Since the Mediterranean is the most endangered area in Europe regarding to climate changes, by using calculated active temperature sums, for five phenological stages of olive, we can monitor their changes in Dalmatia, in the periods 1981 – 2010 and 1986 –2015 so that we could compare them with reference period 1961 – 1990. The increase in temperature sums is more expressed in phenological stages which are appearing in autumn. In Dalmatia, the mean amount of percipitation and sunshine duration, from one phenological stage to another, is showing decreas in amount of percipitation and increase of sunshine hours from reference period to now. Reaserch results of this aktiv temperature sums were applied in a reconstruction of phenological stages in the past. Series of phenological data is prolonged for station Hvar in the period 1877 –2015 by phenological data from the period 1961 – 2015. Linear trend estimation of secular series of calculated olive phenophases showed statistically significant earlier onset of all flowering phenophases from -5 days to -6 days/100 years and earlier appearance of first ripe fruits by -21 days and harvest by -27 days/100 years. The big shift of earlier beginning autumn phenophases is indicating that climate changes are real and that they are gonna impact cultivation of olives in future. During dormancy, olive needs to accumulate enough inactive temperature sums with temperature treshold below 7 °C so that inflorescence buds could be determined. However, warmer and warmer winter are bringing many uncertainties which could effect immense consequences on olive growing if agricultural practices are not gonna be adapted on a new weather conditions