Probabilistic E-tools for Hazard Assessment and Risk Management

The impact of a natural event can significantly affect human life and the environment. Although fascinating, a volcanic eruption creates similar or even greater problems than more frequent natural events due to its multi-hazard nature and the intensity and extent of its potential impact. It is possible to live near a volcanic area and take advantage of the benefits that volcanoes offer, but it is also important to be aware of the existing threats and to know how to minimise risks. In this chapter, we present an integrated approach using e-tools for assessing volcanic hazard and risk management. These tools have been especially designed to assess and manage volcanic risk, to evaluate long- and short-term volcanic hazards, to conduct vulnerability analysis, and to assist decision-makers during the management of a volcanic crisis. The methodology proposed here can be implemented before an emergency in order to identify optimum mitigating actions and how these may have to be adapted as new information is obtained. These tools also allow us identifying the most appropriate probabilistic and statistical techniques for volcanological data analysis and treatment in the context of quantitative hazard and risk assessments. Understanding volcanic unrest, forecasting volcanic eruptions, and predicting the most probable scenarios, all imply a high degree of inherent uncertainty, which needs to be quantified and clearly explained when transmitting scientific information to decision-makers. © 2017, The Author(s).This work was supported by the European Commission (FP7 Theme: ENV.2011.1.3.3-1; Grant 282759: VUELCO).Peer reviewe