Risk assessment, modelling and proactive safety management system in aviation: a literature review

Safety and Risk are in the focus of the constant research ranging from strictly technical and technological to organisational influence. The increase of system’s complexity and the shift of errors from purely mechanical to human and organisational has hampered the study and the prediction of accident probability. This paper reviews the literature for the Safety Management System (SMS) in aviation for their ability to account for the complex dynamics from which safety in these kinds of systems tends to emerge – or not. After this, it evaluates existing risk assessment modelling so as to assess the ‘status’ – or analytical strength –in this domain. The shortcomings of those models are presented to identify potential effective model’s elements in relation to assessed the body of literature and current complex socio-technological systems present in air transportation system and other High Risk Organisation