From containment to realpolitik and back again: a realist contructivist analysis of Turkey-EU relations and the migration issue

The EU's reaction to the migration 'crisis' of 2015/16 was to 'shower' the Turkish government with 'gifts' to secure cooperation on the Aegean crossing. This led to accusations of realpolitik after Brussels made concessions to Turkey despite Ankara's liberal democratic deficit. This paper examines EU policy before, during and after the migration 'crisis' to argue that the situation is more nuanced than this suggests. Turkey-EU accession had been in a state of 'containment' for nearly a decade before the migration issue. Brussels' reaction to it raised questions about the EU’s liberal identity but it backtracked quickly once the extent of illiberality following the attempted coup d'état emerged. Turkey-EU relations then returned to a pre-migration state of 'containment' whereby Turkey remains a candidate but progress towards accession depends on liberal progress. Using Realist Constructivism, it concludes the EU's liberal democratic standards remain, but the liberal bar is pliable according to circumstances