A Metapopulation Model for Chikungunya Including Populations Mobility on a Large-Scale Network

paper submitted on February 21, 2012In this work we study the influence of populations mobility on the spread of a vector-borne disease. We focus on the chikungunya epidemic event that occurred in 2005-2006 on the Réunion Island, Indian Ocean, France, and validate our models with real epidemic data from the event. We propose a metapopulation model to represent both a high-resolution patch model of the island with realistic population densities and also mobility models for humans (based on real-motion data) and mosquitoes. In this metapopulation network, two models are coupled: one for the dynamics of the mosquito population and one for the transmission of the disease. A high-resolution numerical model is created out from real geographical, demographical and mobility data. The Island is modeled with an 18 000-nodes metapopulation network. Numerical results show the impact of the geographical environment and populations' mobility on the spread of the disease. The model is finally validated against real epidemic data from the Réunion event