Empirical Study on the Taiwan's Social Security System--Analyzing the Effects of Wealth Redistribution

我國「國民年金」制度在去年開始運行，並進一步整合現行的各種社會救助與保險的系統，成為一完整的社會保險體系。本文針對我國「國民年金」制度對社會上的老人、殘障者等經濟弱勢族群的保障效果，以及各種參保年齡者所得到之保險利益進行模擬試算，來分析「國民年金」制度是否可以達到濟弱扶傾、保障弱者的「財富重分配」功能。本文依據科普拉函數(Copula function)法，建構出台灣人口健康狀態與所得等級之聯合機率分配。在檢視不同假設之下所獲得之期望保險利益淨現值(PRI)，我們發現，制度中對於殘障者的立即年金給付是具有實際保障效果的。不過如果單純觀察一般健康者，則由於「高所得、高壽命」的影響，「財富重分配」的效果將完全被消除。另外，「國民年金」制度的實行可能只對於現在的高年齡參保者有利，對於未來的新世代國民則不具太大的保障效果。而利率的變動，將是影響未來世代保障效果最重要的因素。我們建議「國民年金」制度應更加強在請領年金的資格限制、費率差異或是其他配套措施，才能更合理有效地利用社會保險的資源，並使更多人受惠。The "National Annuity" has begun operation last year in Taiwan. The plan will be integrate into the current social security and insurance schemes forming a complete social security system. This report focus on the protection effects it has on the elderly and economically weakened, demonstration of calculation on insurance benefits gained based on different age groups of participants, and analysis on whether the "National Annuity" could actually protect the socially weakened and fulfill the function of "wealth redistribution". This report shows the immediate annuity payment to the disabled has a practical security effect. However, to the general public, due to the effect of "high income, high life expectancy," the "wealth redistribution effect will be entirely dismissed. In addition, the implementation of "National Annuity" will only be an advantage to the existing senior participants, while it cannot generate much protection for the new generation of citizens. The volatility of interest rate will be the major element affecting the future outcome of the "National Annuity". We suggest "National Annuity" to strengthen the restriction on qualification of annuity receivers or rate variation in order to utilize social security resource more efficiently and benefit more people