The Analysis of Employment Duration of Agricultural Sector in Taiwan 1980-2002

本文採用行政院主計處「人力資源與運用調查」資料，研究個人特徵與社經變數對農業就業者就業期間長短的影響。結果顯示：不論是在何種機率分配之下，個人特質為影響農業就業期間長短的重要變數。愈長愈不容易離開農業部間，男性較女性不容易在農業部門中累積工作年數，且90男性較80年代男性容易從農業部門移出，其工作年數的積會相關較短。教育程度愈高者其在農業部門的就業期間短。社經背景方面，農業部門每月實質收入相對較高者，比較容易流動到其它部門，其就業期間較每月實質收入低者短。中部地區的就業期間較北部地區為長，南部或是東部地區則無明顯差異，且90年代在農業部門工時愈長，愈傾向停留在農業部門。農業就業者就業期間長短之分析應考量「不可觀察之差異」的存在。 80年代尺度參數(scale parameter)之值都顯著大於1，表示在農業部門的就業期間相對較短，離職率傾向較高，而90年代之值都顯著小於1，即離職率較低，傾向在農業部門累積工作年數。In this study, we investigate the impacts of both individual and socioeconomic characteristics on the employment spells of agricultural workers in Taiwan during eighties and nineties. Our results show that individual characteristics play the major roles in influencing the lengths of the employment spells among alternative specifications. And, the estimations need to take into account the impacts from unobservable factors. The younger and the more educated are more likely to move to nonagricultural sector, especially in nineties. As the socioeconomic characteristics, agricultural earnings, regions, and time periods are also play the important roles. The agricultural workers who have lower earnings or who live in west central Taiwan tend to stay longer in agricultural sector. The agricultural workers in nineties tend to have longer working hours and to stay longer in agricultural sector than the workers in eighties. The values of scale parameter are substantially greater than 1 in eighties and significantly smaller than 1 in nineties. It reveals that the employment spells are shorter in eighties than in nineties. Agricultural workers are less likely to move out of agricultural sector in nineties