(Post) Socialism Country's Political Choice of the Economic Reform: Hungary, PRC and Poland

本文主要想回答一個問題：對於正在脫離社會主義經濟體制的轉型國家而言，究竟會選擇什麼樣的策略來進行經濟改革？為什麼？過去一般以正當性變項來對此進行解釋。筆者除反駁此項論述外，並提出一個假設命題：經政初始階段，執政者與舊政權的政經網絡關係決定經改策略的選擇，如果執政者繼承前政權的政經網絡，將偏向採取漸進改革，而如果執政者的政經網絡與舊政權越不同，則越有可能採取震盪療法。並以匈牙利、中國大陸與波蘭為例來驗證此假說。The article is mainly to answer a question: To those (Post) Socialism Countries, which Transition from Socialism, What kind of strategy they will choose to push economic reform? Why? In the past, most scholars thought communism government didn't dare to take actions of the shock therapy and privatize because communism government wanted to maintain the legitimacy of ideology. While a new authority that has the legitimacy of democracy would take steps of the shock therapy. This paper doesn't agree with this discourse, and adduces a hypothetic: In the beginning of the economic reform, the strategy of economic reform opportunity decides on new authorities and the past governor's relationship. If the new authorities follow former relationship, they will take actions of the gradualism. On the contrary, the more different relationship of the new authorities has, the more chances they will take actions of the shock therapy. Then the author will take Hungary, PRC and Poland for example to prove this hypothetic. In order to answer above questions, this paper will divide the article into six parts: the first part is preface to declare the author's question and viewpoint; the second part is to discuss the shock therapy and gradualism, then review correlative articles to lead the writer's hypothetic; the third part will take Hungary for instance to controvert the legitimacy discourse and review the author's hypothetic; the fourth and the fifth part will take PRC and Poland for instance to review the author's hypothetic; the sixth part is the conclusion