An Empirical Study of the Post-Cold War Relationship between the US and Chinese Mainland

後冷戰時期的中(共)美關係由早先之“虛張聲勢賽局”轉變成“囚徒困境賽局”，雙方呈現一種“不十分穩定的相互合作關係”，彼此潛存“對抗”的因素，卻基於爭取更大利益而維持相互合作的關係。經驗證明印證明了三項假設：第一，中(共)美雙方間之關係是合作大於對抗；第二，由於後冷戰時期整個環境對美國有利，對中共不利，故中共之合作意願大過美國；第三，中共之讓步以不影響政權穩定為前提。經驗證明也發現中(共)美合作空間主要建立在互訪，經貿與科技等議題上；而關係障礙主要源自人權，經貿及中共軍售等問題，其次來自有關港臺之主權問題。這也將是中(共)美未來關係發展的正負面因素。The Sino-American relationship during the Post-Cold War Era has been transferred from a “Called Bluff Game” into a “Prisoner’s Dilemma Game”. Mutual cooperation between Washington and Beijing is maintained on the ground of common interests no matter whether or not the potential bilateral confrontation still exists. Three hypotheses are justified by this empirical study. First, both the US and the PRC are willing to choose cooperation rather than confrontation as their first choice. Second, Beijing is more cooperative than Washington towards the other side since the bargining chips of the US increase after it won the Cold War. Third, the concession of Beijing to the US is preconditioned by the stability of the Communist regime. The empirical study also finds that mutual visits, economic links and technological cooperation are all put on the dialogue agenda. The main issues that hurt Sino-American relationship involve those such as human rights, trade balance and arms sale. The sovereignty of Chinese mainland over Hong Kong and Taiwan is a troubled issue as well, but not so in a hurry to the settled