The Modernization Paradigm and Mainland China's Democratic Development: The Fourth Path

本文以分析新興階級與政府關係的密?程??預測中國大?民主前景的第四種可能性。從經濟發展所生之新階級對政治影響的議題下?入，首先討?預測中國大?民主前景的現代化??、政權穩定?與調和?，認為三??法雖各有部分解釋?，卻忽??中國大?的「國情」而有預測偏差的可能。本文嘗試從中共的制?遺續與經改策?進?分析，提出第四種對民主前景的預測。本文發現，因為制?遺續，多?新階級成員乃因與舊制?的「關係」而被「挑選」，接下?漸進改革的特性亦將其餘因機遇或能?崛起的新資產階級納入「關係」軌道中，使新興階級與中共政權緊密合作，甚至成為體制的一部份。本文因此認為面對這樣的新興階級，我們恐需對中國大?未?的民主前景抱持較為悲觀的態?。This article starts its discussion from three theories that anticipate the future of China's democratic development; namely the "modernization paradigm", "regime stability theory", and the "reconciliation theory". These three theories all offer certain explanations, but neglect the possibility of anticipatory deviation due to the continuation of China's institution. Therefore, this article attempts to bring up a fourth kind of anticipation, and to analyze the emerging rank and government that benefits from economic reforms. It is discovered that during the process of economic reforms, the Chinese government led an unprecedented "forming new rank" movement. And thus albeit unintentionally, the constitution of the new rank was "chosen". Following on, by investigating the ruling of the Chinese government during the transitional period, this article finds that this environment brings the new capitalist class rising from the openness of the market into the track of "relationship", thereby generating a close cooperation between this new rank and the authorities, and even going so far as to make the former a part of the regime. Consequently, this article believes that in facing this emerging class, we may have to hold a more pessimistic view on the future of China's democratic prospects