Investigating the Correlation between Folk Beliefs and Market Equaliblium of Wholesale Fruits – Empirical Evidence of the Wholesale Market in Taipei City

中國以農業立國，土地滋養萬物，為了感謝土地對人類的恩澤，於是用儀式和祭典對土地公表示答謝和祈求。因此民間神祗中，土地公信徒最多。隨著時代轉換，土地公所扮演的角色，也從農業之神轉換成財富之神。在台灣一般家庭或公司行號在每月農曆初一、十五或初二、十六祭祀土地公，祭祀的貢品多以合宜四季水果為主，因此農曆初一、十五及初二、十六俗稱「四果日」。 本論文之主要目的在於探討民間土地公祭拜水果之習俗，對台北農產運銷公司水果批發交易量價變動關係，以供農政單位制訂政策及農友生產採收與貨源調節之參考。本論文選擇台灣交易制度最健全、行情報導最迅速、貨款撥付最即時的台北農產運銷公司，以其第一、二果菜批發市場拍賣交易資料為分析依據，進而來檢視「四果日」前後各類所關注的水果價量的變化。實證資料以102年具代表性的水果品項，分別為水果（總量）、香蕉、鳳梨及芭樂，使用差異中的差異分析法，來驗證「四果日」對於台北農產運銷公司各類水果的銷售量與價格之影響效果。 實證結果發現，四果日並未顯著影響水果、香蕉、鳳梨的市場價格，然而四果日對水果、香蕉、鳳梨的成交量有顯著的影響。因此建議農政單位應建置四果日前後水果交易量價資料，做為農民採收及貨源調配之參考。而水果營養成分及適合祭拜相關資訊，政府應透過相關管道介紹給民眾，以促進水果銷量及提升農民收益。One of the foundamental elements in Chinese society is agriculture. To appreciate the land for agricultural harvesting, ceremony has been hosted to the Mother Nature from time to time. In particular, the actitivities for recognizing the contributions for folk gods are hosted commonly on the first day, 15 or second day, which was named the “four fruit dates”. The primary objective of this study is to quantify the effects of the “four fruit dates”on market price and quantity. The detailed data of fruit wholesale prices and quantities drawn from the Taipei Agricultural Production Transportation and Sale Company are used. The Differences-in-Differences method (DiD) was applied to estimate the pure effect of the “four fruit dates” on market transaction. Results indicate that statistically insignificant effects on prices are observed for four of the selected fruits. In constrast, the “four fruit date” significantly impacts the quantity of the market transaction. According to our findings, this study suggests the agricultural authority to montinor the market transactions during the four fruit date to increase market efficiency