How do Education Reforms Affect the Distribution of NTU Students

本文使用1991~2015年間的台大學生學籍資料，探討教育改革如何改變台大的學生組成。廣設高中政策造成台大學生的高中畢業學校數增加，但公立高中與私立高中以及老牌高中和新設高中有畢業生進入台大的比例依然有明顯差距。觀察各高中在台大所佔比例和錄取率，在這25年間最明顯的變化就是建國中學和北一女中的衰退。我們發現建國中學和北一女中錄取率的變化主要是由繁星推薦、外縣市學生人數、畢業生人數以及海外就讀四個因素所造成，並利用反事實分析計算這些因素可以解釋多少建國中學和北一女中的錄取率變化。最後，我們探討了基測的篩選力以及題目的簡單化，發現基測對第一志願的學生錄取率沒有明顯的影響。Using student data from 1991 to 2015, this paper investigate how do education reforms affect the distribution of NTU students. First, the policy which establishes more senior high schools increases the number of schools which has student access to NTU, and the Star Project also accelerates the process. However, the gap between public schools and private schools still exist and the schools established before 1991 perform better than those established after 1991. Moreover, we show that the decreasing entrance rate of the top two senior high schools can be explained by four factors: the number of students from other county, the number of enrollment, Star Project and the number of student study abroad. We also examine the discrimination effect of Basic Competence Test for Junior High School Students, finding no significant correlation between the correct rate and the entrance rate