A Study on the Price Behavior of the Highly Priced Stocks : Cases Studies for Taiwan

本文的目的在於檢視台灣股市高價股在多頭市場的股價行為。選定高價股的原因在於高價股股價通常與每股獲利的相關性高於每股淨值。我們先取出2009~2013年多頭市場高價股的樣本，以獲利面比較當獲利首度大於一個股本，當年度投資報酬率相較前後一年是否顯著提高；並進一步比較當市值超過特定門檻後，報酬率表現是否加快。檢視此特定股價行為是否存在，並拆解出背後可能的成因。我們發現在2009~2013年台股多頭市場中，EPS門檻效應個股多數有異常報酬率表現，且市值門檻效應有助於判斷投資效率；在實例中討論了四檔具代表性個股，觀察到市值門檻容易形成股價支撐及壓力區間，股價在突破市值門檻後將有異常報酬率，並可透過基本分析相互印證，進一步理解台灣高價股股價行為。The purpose of this paper is to examine the price behavior of the highly priced stocks in Taiwan during the bull market. The reason for using the highly priced stocks is because the it’s stock prices are more correlated with EPS than with NAV. We will use the highly priced stocks sample from the 2009-2013 bull market in Taiwan, and examine whether the stock’s rate of return significantly increased from previous year’s rate of return, once the net profit exceed the share capital for the first time. Furthermore, we will examine whether the stock’s rate of return accelerate after the stock price exceed a certain market capitalization threshold and discuss the possible reasons for this phenomenon. We found that during the bull market period from 2009-2013 in Taiwan stock market, most highly priced stocks have abnormal rate of return once it break the EPS threshold. And the market capitalization threshold is useful in determine the investment efficiency. This paper discussed the four representative stocks, and observed that the market capitalization threshold often form the support or resistance range for the stock. We could expect abnormal rate of return once the stock price break through the market capitalization threshold, and used fundamental analysis to gain additional insight of the price behavior of highly priced stocks in Taiwan