A Scenario Analysis on the Industry Structure and Strategy of Electric Scooter Industry

隨著環境汙染問題日趨嚴重，各國政府及企業皆致力於發展電動交通工具。2015年，本國新創公司Gogoro初試啼聲，在 CES 國際消費性電子展推出Smartscooter®智慧雙輪。因其特殊造型、優異的形能表現以及與傳統機車不同的商業模式，引起廣大討論，也影響電動機車產業中其他業者的布局策略。因此，本研究將以Gogoro推出產品時間起算，探討未來三至五年間，電動機車產業結構變化，以及產業中業者可參考的商業模式及策略規劃。 本研究將以Michael Porter所提出的五力分析與情境分析法作為主要的研究架構，加入六力分析的概念以及史丹福國際研究院的情境分析法步驟，分析電動機車產業的結構及特性。透過情境分析法找出可能影響產業未來發展的不確定變因後，依照變因對產業之衝擊性及不確定性分類，歸納出影響產業發展的不確定構面，進而排列出產業可能的發展情境。隨後，刪除明顯處於矛盾狀態，找出未來可能的產業情境，依照不同情境發展，提供企業做為策略規劃時的參考建議。 本研究透過產業分析，建立電動機車產業的四個特性，其中，影響產業發展的關鍵為電池技術，將最直接決定電動機車的性能與成本。而後，本研究將影響產業發展的不確定變因依其類別整理為三個不確定軸面：技術變化、需求變化以及競合態勢，進而篩選出四個未來可能發展的情境。透過情境分析法，本研究發現適合企業之最佳未來情境為「聯盟主義」。因此，本研究認為電動機車業者在該情境下，應佈局廣義電動車輛產業。企業若能與產業中其他上下游企業組成策略聯盟、共同制定有利於產業發展的長期政策動向，並整合不同領域業者之資源，協同改善研發階段，將得以穩固企業競爭力並提升整體產業價值。Due to global warming and severe environmental pollution, governments and corporations around the world are striving to invent environmental-friendly electric vehicles. In January 2015, Gogoro introduced its newest product, Smartscooter®, in CES (Consumer Electronics Show). With its special design, battery swapping infrastructure and unique business model, Gogoro attempts to change the existing game rule and affects competitors’ strategies accordingly. Therefore, this thesis will undertake a scenario analysis to portray the dynamic change of electric scooter industry after Gogoro was unveiled, and propose useful strategies for the intended players to meet future challenges. This paper analyzes the industry structure of electric scooter industry based on Michael Porter''s Five Forces Model, Value Net, and Scenario Analysis Method of Stanford Research Institute. Based on the industry analysis, we discovered variable factors that affect industry developments. Thereafter, we categorized these factors into different groups, and constructed four potential scenarios with varied factors combinations. According to the industry and scenario analysis, we found out that whether the battery technology is the core factor that would directly determines the future development of this industry, and the best scenario for the corporations would be “Strategic Alliance.” Therefore, the best strategy for current players in the industry is to cooperate with different firms in upstream and downstream of industry value chain. By consolidating the resources, these players could have bigger bargaining power to the government, the consumers and other players outside of the alliance