The Life Care Annuity: An Empirical Examination of Premium Reduction Effect

臺灣平均壽命逐漸延長，加上出生率下降，造成整體社會快速老化，醫療科技進步雖然使得老人可受到更完善的醫療照顧，但老人慢性病及喪失獨自日常生活能力所衍生之長期照護問題，也值得關注與深思。 長期照護之費用並不便宜，因此潛在的長期照顧需求所帶來的財務風險，已成為臺灣民眾必須面對的重大風險，商業長期看護保險是因應這項風險的重要工具之一，但目前商業長期照護保險保費過於昂貴，且市場上存在許多身體健康狀況較差的潛在投保者投保不易的問題，以致許多潛在需求無法滿足。 本研究參考國外過去研究探討將長期照護保險及年金保險結合之生存照護年金保險，以國民健康署衛生福利部「中老年身心社會生活狀況長期追蹤調查」資料庫之樣本，利用馬可夫鏈推估65 歲以上人口健康狀態轉換率及死亡率，試算分開購買長期照護保險及年金保險之總額，與購買長期照護保險與年金保險結合之生存照護年金商品，發現不論男女，生存照護年金之保費皆較分開購買長期照護保險與年金保險便宜。With increasing life expectancy and decreasing birthrate, the problem of rapidpopulation aging is getting worse.Although the continuous improvement of medical technology makes comprehensive medical care more available to elder people, long-term caring problems deviated from chronic diseases and disability are still issues worth paying attention to. Due to the fact that the fees for long-term caring are expensive, potential financial risks generated from the demand of long-term caring has become one of the risks that people in Taiwan have to confront. Although long-term care insurance is one of the crucial instruments to hedge the risk, its expensive premium and the strict underwriting make it hard to meet up large potential needs. Meanwhile, the severe adverse selection problem also make life annuity market exists same problem. In this dissertation, we separate population into different risk groups and estimate the transition probabilities in and out of disability states according to numerous demographic and health characteristics. This allows us to conduct analyses of disability and mortality risks across a number of dimensions. We find that it is less expensive to purchase life care annuity, which is an insurance product combining long term care insurance and life annuity together, than to consume long term care insurance and life annuity separately.第一章 緒論 ...........................................................................................................5 第一節 研究動機 .......................................................................................... 5 第二節 研究目的 .......................................................................................... 6 第三節 研究流程 .......................................................................................... 7 第四節 研究限制 .......................................................................................... 8 第二章 長期照護保險市場介紹與文獻探討 .........................................................9 第一節 臺灣長期照護制度發展與現況 ...................................................... 9 第二節 臺灣長期照護保險市場現況分析 ................................................ 14 第三節 長期照護保險相關文獻 ................................................................ 17 第三章 研究方法 .................................................................................................21 第一節 研究樣本 ........................................................................................ 21 第二節 資料分析方法 ................................................................................ 21 第四章 實證結果分析 .........................................................................................27 第五章 結論與建議 .............................................................................................35 第一節 研究結論 ........................................................................................ 35 第二節 研究建議 ........................................................................................ 36 參考資料 .................................................................................................................37 附錄 .........................................................................................................................4