Prognosis of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients enrolled in clinical trials can be classified by current staging systems

BACKGROUND: Patients enrolled in clinical trials of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are usually required to have good liver reserve and organ function. However, their outcomes are still highly variable. We aimed to examine whether current staging systems can predict the survival of these highly selected patients. METHODS: Patients from clinical trials involving first-line anti-angiogenic therapy were assigned to different stage groups using the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), China integrated score, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score, Chinese University Prognostic Index (CUPI), Groupe d'Etude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire (GETCH), Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) score, Okuda, Tokyo score, and a new staging system recently proposed. Survival prediction by the 10 systems was then compared by both univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: A total of 157 patients were selected for this study. In univariate analysis, all staging systems can predict patient survival except AJCC, BCLC, and JIS score. Concordance indexes for CLIP score, CUPI, and GETCH (0.752, 0.775, and 0.791, respectively) were significantly higher than those obtained for other staging systems. In multivariate analysis, the CLIP score and CUPI (P < 0.001 and 0.009, respectively) predicted survival more accurately than did the other tested staging systems. Hepatitis B infection and poor performance status were also associated with poor survival. CONCLUSION: Several HCC staging systems, especially the CLIP score and CUPI, can predict prognosis of patients who are enrolled in clinical trials of advanced HCC. British Journal of Cancer (2012) 107, 1672-1677. doi:10.1038/bjc.2012.466 www.bjcancer.com Published online 11 October 2012 (C) 2012 Cancer Research U