A preliminary study of the impact upon Taiwan economy under the ECFA

兩岸經貿合作的動向攸關台灣經濟發展的前景，2010年6月間台灣政府與中國大陸所簽訂的「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」（Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, ECFA）便成為兩岸各界關注的焦點，由於台灣屬於淺碟型經濟體，經濟發展有賴與其他國家間的進出口，尤其出口對台灣生產總值比率達七成以上，在2010年起相繼成立的「東協加中國」、「東協加日本」、「東協加南韓」、「東協加三」甚至是「東協加六」可能都將對台灣的出口部門造成衝擊。因此，在兩岸關係逐漸改善的趨勢下，兩岸的經貿開放已成為台灣經濟發展上的重要議題。 若以香港與中國大陸簽署CEPA為例，CEPA帶給香港為中、港間人才的互通與交流、中國市場的開放、企業的財富增加、港股從低點飆漲2.8倍及房地產價格大幅攀升。但CEPA帶來負面的影響卻是，香港企業外移、業務外包，結果是低階服務勞力面臨空洞化，薪資所得下降，貧富差距拉大。這些簽署CEPA後所帶來的種種的負面影響，當局者宜以之為借鏡及未來政策規劃的考量。 ECFA簽訂將直接加速台灣連結兩岸，佈局全球的進程，不僅關係著台灣日後經濟發展，也象徵兩岸關係的進一步和解，大幅降低台海戰爭發生的可能性，同時有助台灣融入全球經貿體系，吸引跨國企業來台投資，促進我國經貿投資國際化。然而ECFA的簽訂也間接造成台灣境內生產的廠商，因產品面臨中國產品價格競爭力的威脅，如果沒有能力轉型，消失的速度將十分迅速，此些產業之所以留在台灣，乃因在國際上缺乏競爭力，故一旦開放大陸產品進口，勢必衝擊中小企業的就業人口及產值，進而破壞台灣產業群聚與生產供應鏈。不過，若以台灣致力全球化的觀點來看，雖然簽署ECFA後將可能進一步擴大台灣對中國的出口，提高依賴程度，但兩岸經貿自由化只是台灣全球佈局過程的一環，若持續推動與其他國家FTA的洽簽，建立更緊密的經貿關係，讓台灣融入全球生產的供應鏈中，那麼危機亦是轉機。 因此，面臨「後ECFA時代」，本研究有幾項建議：一、對內應透過產業創新、新興產業發展及政策鬆綁促進產業升級；二、政府應以全面性配套措施來緩解貧富差距的現象與疑慮；三、台灣應積極與其他國家洽簽FTA，並重新思考FTA對洽簽雙方國的定位；四、洽簽ECFA應以全民利益為考量，排除大型財團及既得利益者的介入；五、台灣與中國大陸洽簽ECFA後，台灣應善用自身之優勢以掌握先機。The dynamic economic cooperation across the Taiwan Strait would affect tremendously the prospect of Taiwan Economy. The across-strait ECFA signed by Taiwan and the Mainland China in June 2010 has been a topic in focus. Taiwan is a shallow-plate economy which relies deeply on foreign trade. Thus the emerging associations like ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan, ASEAN-Korea, ASEAN+3 and even ASEAN+6 etc. may impact the export sector of Taiwan, because the ratio of foreign trade to total output rises more than 70% for Taiwan. As the relationship between Taiwan and China has gradually improved, it has been an important issue to adapt more open policies for the economy of both sides. Taking CEPA of Hong Kong for an example, it influenced enormously the migration of talents, the opening of China market, the extending of enterprise’s fortune and the higher price of stocks and property. On the other hand, it resulted in the extended poverty gap for its business migrating, outsourcing, labor shortage and salary shrink. All these impacts should be considered thoroughly for policy planning by the authorities. The ECFA will speed up the linkage of both sides and the global deployment of Taiwan Economy. It will evoke the macro-economic development and represent the peace symptom across the Strait. However, the domestic manufacturing sector will encounter directly with the price competition from the Mainland China. Those who fail to adjust accordingly will be perished rapidly. It might lead to a disaster of the industrial clusters and the supply chains in Taiwan. When it comes to the viewpoint of globalization, the ECFA could be the very beginning for Taiwan Economy to embrace the world market, to take part in the world wide supply chains and to turn the economic crisis into an opportunity of further growth. Suggestions to the post-ECFA era will be: 1.Upgrade the productivity of industries by way of innovation and more liberalized economic policies. 2.Reduce the poverty gap with totally social solution package. 3.Consider cautiously yet aggressively the FTA with more countries. 4.Exclude syndicates or vested interests for the benefits of the whole society. 5.Seize the chance to make good use of the advantages of Taiwan Economy after the ECFA being signed