Empirical Study of Farm Succession in Taiwan

人口高齡化是近年來已開發國家所面臨之普遍現象，其中因為都市的發展等因素，又以農業人口高齡化的情況最為嚴重。儘管過去有許多文獻從政策面探討我國農業勞動力之問題，並試圖提出建議，然而現存國內研究中，鮮少以實際經營者-農戶為出發點，對於未來已為數不多的農業繼承者，亦甚少著墨。因此本研究探討各種因素如何影響農家繼承與繼承者之務農時間，並加入過去沒有討論的地價、產銷班密度等因子，更希望從農戶所得之外，找到其他亦顯著影響農業繼承之重要變數。此外，本研究更以農場主要經營項目為出發點，探討作物類別與繼承因素間的關係，企圖解釋未來的農業人口經營偏好之變化。 本研究的資料來源為具有全國指標性之2005年之農牧戶普查，以大樣本解決過去小樣本分析的缺失，並以農家內是否有戶長外之務農繼承者、繼承者一年中之工作天數，為判斷繼承程度之依據。本文分別以普羅比模型及次序機率模型分析上述兩議題，結果除了驗證農業所得為農戶繼承之決定性因素外，更顯示了農戶所在之絕對地理位置、農戶主要作物類型，以及農戶自有農地之比率，亦為決定農家後代是否繼承的重要因子。研究成果有助於後續有關農業結構與土地政策中，歸類核心農家，並使耕作輔導、地理規畫等更有效率。Due to the fact that empirical studies on farm succession are hardly found in Taiwan, this study aims to investigate what possible factors may contribute to succession rate as well as the farming time provided by successors. Furthermore, this study expects to find out the connection between succession possibility and the chosen permanent crop. Note that although the dominant influence of income on succession is widely known, explanations due to other determinants, however, remain inconclusive. The above subjects are addressed using the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery and Husbandry Census of 2005. A binary probit method is used to formulate the succession decision, while an ordered Probit is used to gain further insight into the cause of different lenths of participation. The estimation speaks to the fact that farm revenue is the largest determining factor. The results also suggest that successors spend an average period of 3 to 6 months in farm work, no matter what condition changes. Some policy implications may lie on the variables other than income. The relative importance of crop types, political region, and self-owned percentage of land deserve more attention than ever before, helping to target the “core farm” in the later policy