Integrating a Land-use Model and a Hydrological Model in Watershed Planning and Management– A Case Study of Taipei Metropolitan Area

土地利用改變會對環境及生態系統造成不同程度的衝擊，若能妥善規劃土地利用，將有助於避免土地利用變遷所造成的影響，如：對土地利用之格局及水文量的衝擊。然而，不論是模擬土地利用變遷或分析景觀結構與集水區水文量的變化，皆需考量空間特性的資料，近年來已有不少研究整合不同模式及分析方法於地理資訊系統架構中，藉以提升模式之效能及操作性。目前整合土地利用、水文模式及格局分析上仍缺乏較完整性的空間決策分析架構與平台。 本研究的主要目的是整合土地利用模式（CLUE-S）、景觀生態指數（Patch Analysis 4）與降雨－逕流模式（HEC-HMS）於地理資訊系統（ArcGIS）架構中，期望建立一個空間決策平台提供土地利用變遷模擬與分析。此外，並以台北都會區為研究區域，根據歷史資料與土地利用開發策略模擬未來的土地利用格局，並以景觀生態指數評估土地利用的變遷對景觀空間結構的影響，並將研究範圍縮小至淡水河流域的五堵集水區，探討土地利用變遷後對集水區短期距水文事件之逕流量的影響。 研究結果顯示，本研究成功建立之整合性土地利用變遷模擬與分析平台，此決策平台可提供土地利用規劃之應用，且此平台亦可依使用者需求加入ArcGIS系統之模式與分析工具，擴充此平台之功能，模式的操作與資料間的傳遞也將更為方便，此外，模擬的結果則可提供空間資訊及情境，以做為相關集水區土地利用生態規劃管理之參考。Land use changes may have some impacts on the landscape structure and the hydrological processes, and proper land use planning strategies could help in mitigating those effects. Both the simulation of land use changes and the analysis of landscape structure or hydrological processes need the spatial data of the study area. In recent years, many researchers have worked at integrating different analysis models into the Geographic Information Systems to promote the usefulness and convenience of the model. However, there is little research on understanding the causes and effects of land use changes. In this study, we have integrated a land use model (CLUE-S), a precipitation-runoff model (HEC-HMS), and Patch Analyst into a novel platform in a Geographical Information System (ArcGIS). Our objective is to simulate land use changes and their impacts in the Taipei Metropolitan Area in Taiwan. Given different conservation and development scenarios, future land uses in the study area are simulated by the CLUE-S model in the ArcGIS platform. By simulating runoffs, it is possible to assess the impacts of land use changes on surface runoffs in the study area by using the HEC-HMS model in the ArcGIS platform. In addition, to assess the impacts of land use changes on land use patterns, landscape metrics of the simulated land uses are calculated by the patch analyst in the ArcGIS platform. The results demonstrate that the CLUE-S model and the developed platform can simulate land use change scenarios efficiently. The model can also integrate other models to simulate and assess the impacts of land use changes on watershed land use planning and management