Probabilistic Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Long-Term Effect of Universal Hepatitis B Vaccination: An Experience from Taiwan with High Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Hepatitis B E Antigen Positive Prevalence

Aim: To assess cost-effectiveness of hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination strategies from health care payer and societal perspectives, focusing on the long-term effect, in Taiwan where prevalence of HBV and Hepatitis B e Antigen (HBeAg) is high. Methods: A decision analysis was performed to compare total costs and effectiveness between two vaccination strategies: universal vaccination and no-vaccination. The Markov process was defined as a series of states including acute HBV infection, asymptomatic carrier, chronic hepatitis , compensated and decompensated liver cirrhosis, hepatoma, and death. Direct and indirect costs were also imputed based on estimates. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ( ICER) per life-year gained and quality-adjusted life years gained were calculated at a 3% discount rate. By assigning a series of specific distributions to each parameter, a probabilistic cost-effective analysis using Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to yield 5000 ICER replicates. Results: The effectiveness of a universal vaccination program for reducing hepatocellular carcinoma cases and deaths was approximately 86%. The average life years gained per subject as a result of such a universal vaccination was 3.9. The vaccination program dominated over a no- vaccination program (less cost and more effectiveness). Conclusions: A universal vaccination program against hepatitis B infection is not only effective for reducing long-term sequelae but is also a cost-saving primary preventive strategy, which supports a universal infant immunization in endemic area with high prevalence of HBV and HBeAg