The Impact of With-Profits Policy’s Mechanisms to Insurer’s Investment Strategy and Insolvency Risk

本研究使用模擬方法針對10年期躉繳分紅保單的不同機制設計，包括是否給付終期紅利、有無分紅率平滑、可否解約、有無期初資本投入，配合英國、台灣法規限制的參與率與市場預定利率的組合，求出保險公司採用不同股票投資比例時對應的真實世界破產機率。 研究結果發現保單允許解約時在相同的股票投資比例下，保險公司無力清償的機率皆高於不可解約的保單。同時，無論保單是否允許解約，在單項機制方面以期初資本投入的效果最好；在多項機制設計方面，紅利率平滑、終期紅利與期初資本的結合能發揮比期初資本投入單項機制強的降低無力清償風險的效果。 綜合分析英國與台灣在分紅保單方面的法律規範與市場商品設計的異同，本研究建議將法定參許率的規定修正為允許公司每年決定可分配的盈餘，但是要規定應在保單有效期間內將包括未分配盈餘的總盈餘70%以上分配給保戶；可參考英國在公司帳目上設立獨立的分紅基金並對保戶揭露該基金的投資與分紅策略；在市面上提供低預定利率與高參與率搭配的保單，向投資人宣導該類保單可降低保險公司保證報酬的壓力，同時提升整體保單期望報酬的特性。A 10-year single premium with-profits policy with different mechanisms, including with or without terminal bonus, smoothing bonus rate, surrender option and initial investment from the insurer, is simulated to find out the relation between the investment strategy, the proportion invested in stocks, and the real world insolvency risk of the insurance company. The result shows that comparing to the policy with surrender option, insurer’s insolvency risk is always higher than the policy without surrender option under same weight of investment in stocks. In the same time, no matter the policy is with or without surrender option, the initial investment from the insurer improves the most when only one mechanism is considered. When talking about the effects of multiple mechanisms, the policy with smoothing bonus rate or/and terminal bonus plus initial investment all overwhelms the policy with one mechanism used only. By analyzing the results and the differences of regulations and market practices of with-profits policies between the United Kingdom and Taiwan, the suggestions are the followings: The regulation of minimum bonus declared every year should be adjusted to ensure the fair treatment to policyholders. Insurance company in Taiwan should set separate fund for its with-profits business and disclose the investment strategy and bonus policy to its policyholders in a customer-friendly way. Policy with riskier asset allocation and lower guaranteed interest rate should be provided and properly introduced to the market.論文口試委員審定書 i要 iibstract iii錄 iv目錄 v目錄 vi一章 前言 - 1 -一節 研究背景與動機 - 1 -二節 研究方法 - 2 -三節 研究內容與架構 - 2 -二章 文獻回顧 - 4 -三章 分紅保單介紹 - 8 -一節 英國 - 8 -二節 台灣 - 17 -四章 評價方法 - 28 -一節 資產負債模型 - 28 -二節 清償能力評估 - 31 -五章 數值結果 - 32 -一節 參數假設 - 32 -二節 敏感性分析 - 33 -六章 結論與建議 - 43 -考文獻 - 45 -錄一、台灣保險公司自由分紅保單紅利計算公式 - 48