The Relationship Between the Age of Farmers and Agricultural Labor Productivity in Taiwan

人口高齡化是已開發或開發中國家近年來所面臨的問題，在1993年台灣65歲以上人口已超過高齡化門檻，至2007年時高齡人口達總人口10.16%，顯示台灣人口高齡化的情況加深，而其中又以農業部門人口高齡化之情況更為明顯。過去有不少國內外研究認為高齡化可能對農業的生產與經營產生負面的影響，甚至降低農業產值與不利農業發展；然而僅有少數研究能夠以數量方法評估並提供相關科學證明，由於勞力是影響農業部門發展之重要關鍵之一，因此，瞭解現階段農民年齡結構及其對勞動生產力之影響極為重要，有鑑於此本研究之目的在於分析台灣農耕人口的年齡結構；分析年齡對於勞動生產力及經營之影響；並提出相關政策建議。研究使用1995及2005年普查資料，並利用迴歸分析方法來檢視年齡結構與勞動生產力之關係。研究結果顯示，高齡化問題對於台灣農耕業部門有逐漸嚴重的趨勢。在2005年，年齡超過65歲以上的農民約占18.61%，較10年前高出7.24%。此外，台灣農耕業之勞動生產力亦具有生命週期效果，高峰落於40-50歲間；男性、東部地區、從事食用菇菌類產業經營或花卉類產業經營及以農耕業為主的兼業農普遍有較高的勞動生產力。在高齡化對勞動生產力之影響方面，研究結果發現經營面積約有38.61%集中於勞動生產力較低的高齡農民，且隨著農民年齡愈長其擁有土地愈多，但勞動生產力卻逐漸降低；具有高勞動生產力的青年農民卻得不到足夠的土地耕作，使得總體生產力無法提升；也是農民年齡高齡化對農耕業造成不利影響之主因。Recent decades, ageing population became an important issue both in developed and developing countries. The situation of ageing population in Taiwan is getting serious, especially in agricultural sector. Many researchers suggested that ageing farmers could have negative impacts on agricultural production, but few of them could provide promising findings by using quantitative methods. Since labor is one of the key factors affecting the development of agriculture, it is important to realize the age structure of farmers and further analyze its correlation with agricultural labor productivity. For this reason, the purpose of this research is to investigate the age structure of Taiwan’s farmers and to analyze the relationship between farmers’ age and the labor productivity.995 and 2005 census data and regression analysis are used to investigate the age structure and its relationship with labor productivity. The results show that the ageing issue for Taiwan’s agricultural sector is more serious than ever. In 2005, more than 18.61 percent of farmers are older than 65 years old, which is 7.24 percent higher than 10 years before. Moreover, the life cycle effect was found in Taiwan’s agricultural labor productivity, and its peak is between 40 and 50 years old. Our findings also suggest that, in general, male farmers, living in eastern part of Taiwan, or growing mushroom / flowers have higher productivities. Besides, Operating areas are owned most by ageing farmers who have low labor productivities, and the older the farmers are, the more lands they have. The young farmers who have high labor productivities can’t get enough lands to cultivate, so that the whole productivity can’t increase. It’s also the main reason that ageing farmers affect negatively on agriculture.口試委員審定書 i辭 ii文摘要 iii文摘要 iv一章 緒論 1一節 研究動機與目的 1二節 研究方法與流程 2三節 論文架構 3二章 台灣農耕業農民年齡結構與生產力概況 4一節 台灣農耕業農家人口年齡結構 4二節 台灣農耕戶主要生產者年齡結構之分配 9三節 台灣農耕戶主要生產者經營規模與勞動生產力概況 15三章 文獻回顧 49一節 農耕戶勞動力之相關文獻 49二節 農民高齡化及其對農耕業生產與經營影響之相關文獻 57三節 小結 62四章 實證模型與估計結果 63一節 資料來源及處理與模型設定 63二節 估計結果 66五章 高齡化對勞動生產力之影響與政策意涵 73一節 模擬分析 73二節 高齡化之效果分析及政策意涵 75六章 結論與建議 84一節 結論 84二節 建議 86考文獻 8